Predicting the Effects of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change on Munneru River Basin Using CA-Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool

It is important to understand how changing climate and Land Use Cover (LULC) will impact future spatio-temporal water availability across the Munneru river basin as it aids in effective management adaptation strategies. The one of sub-basins Krishna River India. In this paper, combined LULC Climate Change (CC) on resources using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) presented. SWAT model calibrated validated for period 1983–2017 SWAT-CUP SUFI2 algorithm. correlation coefficient between observed simulated streamflow calculated be 0.92. top five ranked Regional Models (RCMs) are ensembled at each grid Reliable Ensemble Averaging (REA) approach. Predicted maps years 2030, 2050 2080 CA-Markov revealed increases built-up kharif crop areas decreases barren lands. average monthly streamflows baseline (1983–2005) three periods, namely near (2021–2039), mid (2040–2069) far (2070–2099) under Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 8.5 change scenarios. Streamflows increase periods when only CC effect considered RCP When compared scenario, percentage mean (July–November) with 33.9% (near future), 35.8% (mid 45.3% (far future). Similarly, by 33.8% 36.5% 38.8% future) CC. considered, balance components such surface runoff evapotranspiration while aquifer recharge both scenarios over periods. findings study can used plan develop integrated strategies projected This methodology applied other basins similar physiographic regions.